The west had proclaimed itself the custodians of the free world and moral and ethical conduct, hard as it maybe to find the irony in that, some, in their thanklessness, manage regardless. However, the world has changed exponentially in the past few decades, especially with the penetration of internet into the society becoming so absolute that it is now a veritable aspect of the human condition. That awareness has brought on opinions and those that control them. When Einstein said, “I know not with what weapons World War 3 would be fought”, it was a true reflection of his intellect, because it is hard to imagine anyone in his time would have considered Information as a weapon at such large scale.
Psyops and misinformation have always been used in warfare, but social media has taken it to be at the stature of a WMD. No longer do you need an operative on the ground, pay those of weak principles, coerce others, just a few bot accounts and some inflammatory memes, the rest is a runaway chain reaction, not unlike the ones that levelled the cities in Japan. Lo and behold sovereignty becomes as real a concept for most as the WMDs were in Iraq.
But in the spirit of not giving undue credit, it becomes unavoidable to mention Iran. An ancient culture rivalled by only a few, ruined by religious uprising. It also serves as a fine example of how no one is above making mistakes when playing with fire. United States shared a glorious relationship with the Shah, until their obsessive policy against Soviets led them to fuel Khomeini as a counterbalance. Almost a sci-fi cliche, they lost control and created a monster. Almost poetic, how it is easier to tame the immense power of atoms but man runs wilder than forest fires. So, we have one of the most oppressive and regressive regimes on the planet, and what’s more, they have enough oil fund a holy war and enough radical thoughts to actually try one.
Radicalism has not dulled their battle wits like their less gifted eastern neighbour. Iran has taken every step to maximize their capabilities given the constraints they had, which ironically came from those that put the current regime there to begin with, and since we are honouring the proud traditions of the western bloc, of not seeing irony, we will fail equally, to note that one of the primary benefactors of Tehran is in fact, Moscow. That being the case, Iran has demonstrated their capability to be battle effective at long distances, attacking Saudi Arabia and even Israel successfully using drones and ballistic missile systems. The latest 12-Day war between Iran and Israel showed two things, US will take dramatic steps when it deems it necessary, and Israel is not untouchable.
So why is a decades old problem, suddenly relevant in 2026? Well, for one, the lesson was not learned, perhaps the geographic immunity to the consequences of their actions or an arrogant confidence in their ability to play the puppeteer. Which has led to the volatility in the world today. But another answer lies in the subtle clues from the world of OSINT.
Yet another brilliant new reality of our world, no longer do govt. need to rely on spooks in hats and trench coats. Every phone, every free hour of every human is a data source. Add to that the urge for people to be the first to notice things, we have independent watchers. These watchers have noticed patterns, namely, Australia pulling people out of Iran. Well, that does not sound too sombre considering the unrest there, however, the fact that Russians seem to be evacuating their embassy along with families, and there seems to be a massive influx of US assets into Europe. A few days ago, multiple USAF C-17 heavy lift aircraft as well as AC-130-J Ghostriders were seen arriving at UK. Some from Kentucky. One might attribute their presence a precaution or a facilitation of the assault on the Russian oil tanker, Bella 1. However, AC-130 and multiple C-17s worth of cargo is bit of an overkill. So, was it a precaution against a Russian response for capturing their ship? Probably. However, it seems more in sync with what is happening in Iran and Israel.
While Iranians deserve a better deal than being subjected to radial ideas of religious zealots, the relation between New Delhi and Tehran has been a critical one for South-Asia. India has been leveraging the Chahbahar port to access central Asia and supply critical aid, amongst other things to Afghanistan. Should this geopolitical powder keg explode, and a new government be established in Iran, it can be assumed, it will come with significant US influence. In the backdrop of hostile bills allowing 500% tariffs on Russian oil purchasers and the recent degradation of the region’s security, it is not hard to see how this may smell like a problem for India.
India has mostly maintained a neutral stance and New Delhi has refined its geopolitical balancing act to the point of an art form. While all nations, by the very nature of the world we live in, engage in some dubious and less than ethical activities, India mostly has the rare luxury of taking pride in being one to care for its people first and in its foreign dealings, even with tyrannical governments, it makes a point to benefit the subjects just the same, which is not as marketing friendly as the west likes to come across, but not as bad as sending a nuclear carrier battle group to protect a genocide either.
However, just like Europe is finding out, good intentions and civility don’t mean much when anti-social and disruptive elements are introduced into the system. Just in the last 24 hours, several EU leaders have issued strong statements against the US and even questioned the hitherto unshakable alliance between them. This, above all else, is bad news for Indian security scenario, since New Delhi believes in using soft power and diplomacy above all else and Washington seems to be hell bent on doing the best impression of the Kool Aid man. This implies, trying to follow independent policy and standing on principles may not lead to favourable or positive consequences.
The shockwaves from Caracas haven’t died down, but the American salvo is a gift that keeps giving, whether anyone wants it or not. Directly declaring control over Venezuela, claiming profits from their oil and obliging them to buy American goods with the money that does go to them, seems not unlike the history of India under the British empire. But if that wasn’t bad enough, this fractures EU at a fundamental level and the threats to Greenland and the open mockery of EU leaders in the immediate aftermath, does the rest, all the while justifying the war in Ukraine and any possible misadventures by PLA on Taiwan.
A dangerous game is afoot and by the words and signs alone, it will only pick up pace. Is a truly multilateral world inevitable or will the ambition and brute forces of hegemony suspend modern society in a limbo, not fully divided in the current blocs, nor fully multilateral, just a vicious, unpredictable, feudal tapestry of nations trying to get what they want, treating international laws as more of suggestions. Afterall, power resides where people believe it resides, and lately, the world seems to be increasingly moving towards the notion that it is not with international bodies.
One thing is for sure, the defence landscape in India needs more than just an upgrade, it needs a multi-dimensional evolution and be able to support an aggressive foreign policy, if needed, since the one lesson that keeps resonating in recent days is that those that don’t draw swords can still die upon them.
