For decades now, the notion that the west must amalgamate as one, against the Soviet juggernaut has been one of the cornerstones of the world order. Of course, USSR ceased to exist in the 90s, but that would have meant a gun with no target to shoot at. The Military Industrial Complex of USA knows all too well what happens to surplus military equipment. As Little Boy and Fat man illuminated the calm lands of Japan, it also illuminated the path to a world where children barely old enough to have a single original thought would not be put to the meat grinder of World Wars, but alas, who’d buy the equipment’s to bring them back home safely then?
Surplus equipment was scrapped or sold to former colonies en masse, however, someone probably felt their wallets a bit lighter than they had gotten used to, in the absence of massive orders for military hardware. The woes were short lived though. As is with human nature, nothing brings people close like a common enemy. Hitler did a splendid job of playing the coon, however, him doing a double take on his exit with a cyanide pill and his pistol left a gaping opening…for the title of “enemy”, of course.
As if straight out of Tolkien and R. R. Marin’s pages, the great new evil arose in the eastern frozen lands, with their savage hoards that overran Berlin and their walls and secrets. I suppose it is worth studying the European fascination with the idea and it being so similar to the works of Tolkien. However, the crux is that Europe was on board Uncle Sam’s star spangled train. Knowing the Soviets, one can’t really blame them either. Life was good. NATO existed, money and know-how shared, a true creative space on how to “Kill commies” and business was booming. The first price paid by Europe was their autonomy, in broader policies anyway. It worked in the time and age, and even US played nice, the camaraderie of the Wars fought would not have worn off so quickly.
The witch hunt for communists swept the world in proxy wars, from Korea to Nam and from Latin America and the Middle East to Afghanistan. Some fought with bombs, some handled more quietly, but a lot more brutally. However, the fall of Soviets again left that gaping hole. The first Price to pay for prosperity sounded like a dream, much like the first glass or the first drag in the long spiral down to addiction. The birth of the Russian Federation, weakened, broke, technologically compromised, sent a shockwave. Not the glass shattering kind of Tsar Bomb, but the subtle dread that befalls slowly. There was no enemy threatening the free world and the money demands there be one.
While, through the guitars of the Scorpions, blew the Winds of Change, enchanting the “free world”, the rulers thereof prepared to close the windows. The Siberian winds are cold and they bite, or at least that is what the notion has been for the past two and a half decades. One must imagine that swaying the population to the idea that Russia was Sauron to the Morgoth of USSR was probably not that hard. Afterall, Moscow still ran the show, the Kremlin still stood imposing as ever, and the Iron curtain and the stigma of a Soviet invasion produced only cold war spy novels in the name of cultural exchange. A lack of interpersonal connect meant that people on the other side were not human, they were rotten to the core and meant you harm.
Not for the lack of trying, Russia never made it into NATO, nor did the latter stay and maintain status quo. America sold the idea of Russia as the villain instead of USSR, Europe accepted. Just like they accepted the defending of Operation Searchlight in E. Pakistan. Just like they accepted the genocide of the Kurds and just like they accepted that US invasion of Afghanistan was just them exercising their rights to respond after 9/11.
Europe had no doubts about their morality, neither the people, nor the leaders, however, the former did not seem to be on the same page with the latter. But this was allowed, peace makes people complacent and that privilege comes with indifference, right out of the box. EU has enjoyed blanket defence under the shadow of American guns. In return, US has used their soil to project a global influence, and irradiate a few acres every now and then, but that’s a story for another time. But US did play nice, they were magnanimous even. Not by intention necessarily, but through the sheer fact that they did not have to play nice at all, even as a facade.
But that world order where hard power was considered a deterrence and global politics were shaped through actions that “never really happened”, created the global mindset of predictability. Suddenly it stopped being a jousting match and became a game of chess. You play with ferocity, but instead of breaking your ribs, the most you can do is slam the table, and you’d still have to shake hands with the ones that bested you. “Today’s era is not an era of war”, as spoken by the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has resounded globally and has been acknowledged world over. It was spoken about the Ukraine war, and the POTUS seems to have taken a liking to the idea. He came in with the goal of ending wars and getting the Nobel peace prize. Did not take him long to run out of wars, that he claims to have ended anyway, but he also did not get the prize.
“Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”, so the saying goes. Mr. President is no woman, but he sure grabs the sentiment well, no pun intended. His recent approach to world politics akin to a wrecking ball has unsurprisingly, presented the results you’d expect out of one. Strong statements out of Denmark, France, Austria, Germany and even the UK have undoubtedly signalled that the foundations of NATO are no longer unshakable. Even Japan has given up its hitherto chronic pacifism and has virtually doubled their defence expenditure, signalling a waning trust on the protection of the US.
A process that would have taken years, if not decades, has finally happened, and virtually overnight. While Trump went on a tirade about how international laws don’t apply to him and how his own morality defines his actions, which unsurprisingly sound like Detective John McClaine pretending to be a looney in Die Hard 3 (I am the voice of my own god…), Europe has been defensively orphaned overnight. They are now forced to reconsider their positions on what is happening in the world since ignoring it now would just be tantamount to submission to the US, a price that can’t be afforded in the internet age. But the alternative is to get their gears going from a virtual standstill. Restarting the forges of military hardware is no small task and with significant supply chain dependence on US, Taiwan and China, along with a population used to a welfare state along with immigrant pressure, one would be forgiven to imagine that they envy Heracles for the “ease” of his labours. Of course, the long-term solution seems to give up the idea of Russia being the enemy.
Putin has said many times that the leaders of the EU have pressed the narrative of Russia being the villain to fund the NATO war machine, but this time, the words strike true in the hearts of Europeans. However, regardless of realization, Europe must now pay the price of a borrowed hegemony, resounding one simple truth about the world we live in, a deal isn’t a deal until the other has something to lose and it has been mighty myopic of Europe to assume that US will not do to them what they themselves have supported US doing in other countries.
While it may be a spell before Moscow feels a warm breeze from the west, and it is unlikely to happen as long as Ukraine burns, but one can hope that the Europe of tomorrow might see Russia as more of a partner than an adversary. Strategically, it made sense for Europe to keep seeing Russia as a problem, but pragmatically, its is better to be on good terms with a neighbour that can move armoured divisions right up to your door steps and supplies most of your energy. The only reason for that to not be the case was the one cure-all across the Atlantic. By submission or by inertia, Europe, by and large stayed assuming that Washington will always stay.
The gaping hole left by the likes of Hitler and the fall of USSR is open again, and while the world has tried putting ISIS, Putin, Xi, even the Jews as a hole, up to the task, it seems like the leader of the free world has taken it upon himself to fill it himself, with his mercurial ways. Maybe Russia was pushed to war or maybe Putin just handles stress better, to be fair, the bar hasn’t been too high of late. One thing is for sure; EU is due for a date with their reckoning. Dr. Jaishankar once said, “”Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems””. The real price of this upheaval might finally push the EU to open their minds and start seeing itself as part of the world and a shareholder in its fate, and regardless of their fate, Moscow can only be happy about it.
